Two theories could explain the 2024 election's current state. President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are nearly tied in one. In the other, Biden is trailing further than national surveys imply.
The answer hinges on whether Trump and Republicans have retained their Electoral College lead from the last two presidential elections. Clinton won the popular vote by more than 2 percentage points in 2016, but Trump defeated her in the Electoral College, 306 to 232, due to his performance in key demographics and states. The ultimate history-book margin was 304 to 227 due to “faithless” electors.
Biden won the popular vote by 4.5 percentage points in 2020, matching Trump's Electoral College vote total of 306. If that pattern continues in 2024, Biden may need to win the popular vote by 5 points or more to acquire 270 Electoral College votes to become president.
A two-election pattern doesn't guarantee future results. Another theory regarding 2024 is that Trump's gains with Black and Latino voters, especially in states like California and New York that won't decide the presidency, may reduce the GOP's Electoral College edge. Even slightly greater Trump margins in huge, blue states might align the national and tipping-point state votes.
“With Trump's improvements among Hispanic and Black voters, the pro-GOP bias may decline by 1 to 2 points — but it won't be erased,” said Cook Political Report senior editor and elections analyst David Wasserman with Amy Walter.
“In other words, I think Trump could lose the popular vote by 2 points in November and still carry Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Nevada — which is why I view Trump as a pretty obvious favorite,” Wasserman said.
Political analysts define Electoral College bias as the difference between the popular vote margin and the “tipping point” state, which gives the winner the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. Obama won the popular vote by approximately 4 percentage points in 2012 and carried his tipping point state, Colorado, by over 5 points.
However, under Trump, the Electoral College tilt increased to its highest level since 1948, favoring the GOP. One reason was Trump's strong performance among white working-class voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Midwest and Rust Belt battleground states.
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