Trump cannot claim, “I personally support this restrictive law, but the country/state isn’t ready.” He could also say, “I think Florida should change its law to 15 weeks, but I can’t vote for restoring Roe.”
Voters who distrusted the GOP on entitlements chose Trump in 2016. These elder voters shared enough culture to give him a chance to maintain Social Security.
Can enough abortion-rights-supporting women trust Trump despite his party's actions? Skeptical. The less Trump publicly opposes the six- or eight-week prohibitions, the less plausible his compromise position.
How can he distance himself from appointing the three Supreme Court justices who overturned Roe? He can do it if he confesses he outsourced the justices. He would have to admit he traded judge seats for political support. What a slippery slope!
Both candidates want to avoid Gaza, and Trump wants to avoid abortion. Candidates get into greater problems when they discuss these concerns. As many of my readers know, I consider the Dobbs decision existential, and it's likely covering up other national splits because many affected people think abortion rights as important. People vote on fundamental problems over many others when they affect their lives.
I finished the column above as the Arizona Supreme Court upheld a 123-year-old abortion prohibition. This fall, the state may hold a referendum on whether to guarantee abortion in the constitution.
Given my knowledge of Arizona, this should pass. Despite its cultural conservatism, the state has a strong libertarian tendency that leads to a “my bedroom, my business” attitude. Arizona will have to follow a rigorous legislation if it doesn't approve a constitutional amendment, like Florida. With those two options, voters' choice is obvious.
As I argued last week, 15-week abortion limits may be “tolerable” restricted. Perhaps. However, there is “tolerance” and “preference,” and it's apparent the public likes to decide for itself. It doesn't want government control.
The main impact of abortion propositions on the electorate is that they encourage younger voters. If all these abortion propositions nationwide boost youth turnout, they might make the difference between Biden and Trump winning Arizona.
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