Leading a political party is difficult today. In a society where political opinions are binary and nuance is forbidden, finding a one-size-fits-all Middle East policy or reproductive rights viewpoint is difficult.
The “spirit” of a political position no longer hides an actual viewpoint. Despite his longtime backing for Israel, President Joe Biden is losing support from a Democratic base that doubts the Israeli government can wage a just war.
Trump's controversial viewpoint shouldn't be controversial in the GOP, ironically. Trump is only repeating the party's decades-old position: leave it to the states. Conservative abortionists demand a government limit. Restoring reproductive rights to the states was not the anti-abortion movement's goal pre-Dobbs. The purpose was to restrict abortion access as quickly as possible.
But stating that last line as I wrote it is unpopular. Instead of sheltering behind its states-rights argument, the GOP would have had to face its unpopular abortion position sooner if it had directly opposed access regulation.
However, Trump is learning the hard way that the GOP has no abortion middle ground post-Dobbs. Pro-access and anti-access abortion rights factions are forming across the nation. Some believe that abortion availability was middle-ground pre-Dobbs until viability, roughly 24 weeks. However, Dobbs eliminated policy middle ground.
Many voters now feel like political activists since several states, particularly large and diverse Texas and Florida, have passed unpopular and stringent abortion legislation. Before Dobbs, many Americans assumed they had the same reproductive health care rights in all states.
Trump's goal is clear. He hopes to break from the most limited views on the topic. As worried as Trump is that this issue could hurt his chances of a second term, he didn't endorse the Florida ballot item that would codify Roe v. Wade in the state's constitution. If he thinks the gender disparity is rising against him, he may.
Trump was likely trying to duplicate his 2016 rhetorical inoculation on entitlements. He opposes plans to reduce or slow these programs, even though his party still believes in “let’s shrink government”. Because so many elected Republicans ran for office under the pretext of budgetary constraint, the GOP's position on entitlements will disappear once Trump takes office.
Trump is definitely against abortion restrictions under 15 or 16 weeks, although he doesn't say so. He implied that Florida's six-week ban was excessive. As a Floridian, Trump may choose on the ballot this fall between an unpopular restricting law or the law before his reformed Supreme Court relitigated it.
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